Majority of voters pick Democratic ballot
By CHARLES S. JOHNSON - IR State Bureau - 06/05/08
Political party officials and political scientists disagree about the significance of that fact.
Unofficial results show that nearly 181,500 Montanans voted in the nationally significant Democratic presidential primary between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. That’s nearly twice as many as the approximately 95,100 people casting ballots in the GOP presidential race between John McCain and Ron Paul.
The 181,423 people voting the Democratic ticket Tuesday is the largest number casting primary ballots in either party since at least 1960 and probably in Montana political history since the number of registered voters continues to grow.
It’s one-third higher than the previous record of more than 136,000 people who voted in the 1980 Democratic primary. That election featured two high-profile challenges: U.S. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., trying to unseat President Jimmy Carter, and Lt. Gov. Ted Schwinden opposing Gov. Thomas L. Judge.
What do Tuesday’s results mean for the November general election year? It depends who you ask.
“I actually think it’s something that’s going to make a huge difference for our entire ticket in November,” said Kevin O’Brien, Montana Democratic spokesman. “Folks who have done politics in Montana for decades have never seen this kind of energy and enthusiasm. What it translated to yesterday is more folks registered to vote, more folks volunteering and knocking on doors and making phone calls. That level of activity is going to carry over for our entire slate in the fall.”
O’Brien said Democrats will be unified. It’s also clear, he said, that Montana Democrats, independents and Republicans want change.
“When you put our Democratic nominees up against what is essentially a third term for George W. Bush (in John McCain), I think Montanans are going to choose change,” O’Brien said. “There’s a good chance this state could go blue in November.”
Nonsense, said state Republican Chairman Erik Iverson.
“I think there would be a danger for Democrats to read too much in that,” Iverson said. “Montana didn’t turn blue overnight,” Iverson said.
He acknowledged that Montana Democrats, from a party-building standpoint, were able to register new voters for the primary election and test their voter turnout operations, but he questioned if they would have same kind of resources in terms of money and volunteers this fall.
Iverson said there was no real incentive for Republicans to vote Tuesday because McCain had the race sewn up.
Polls have shown that both McCain and U.S. Rep. Denny Rehberg can attract significant crossover votes from Democrats in November, he said.
“I expect John McCain to win Montana by double digits, and he’ll have coattails,” Iverson said. “He’s going to be a big help to Montana Republicans this fall, and I think, conversely, Barack Obama is going to be a big problem for Democrats.”
Two Montana political scientists had mixed opinions about the impact of the heavy Democratic turnout in the fall.
“I think it translates some, and it starts now,” said Craig Wilson, a professor of Montana State University-Billings. “It’s got to give the Democrats some momentum and some excitement. All the attention was on the Democratic primary.”
He noted that some Democratic candidates in statewide uncontested races outpolled their Republican counterparts 2-to-1.
“Republicans made a conscious effort to go early with a well-intentioned, but ill-advised, closed caucus, and Montana didn’t matter,” Wilson said . “Democrats didn’t do anything and given the way the process worked with superdelegates and proportional representation, the last chapter was played out in the Last Best Place.”
Jim Lopach, a University of Montana professor, saw it differently.
“I don’t think it makes much difference in the fall,” he said. “I don’t think I can use the partisan split in the primary as an indicator in the fall. I thought there was nothing in the Republican primary of any interest.”
He speculated that some Republicans voted a Democratic ballot for one reason.
“I think a lot of real Republicans voted in the Democratic primary because they wanted to vote against Hillary Clinton just once in their life,” he said.
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