The amount of water trickling into Canyon Ferry Reservoir last week was about the same as what was flowing out, but lake level watchers are cautiously optimistic that even with the lack of precipitation this winter, the pool will be close to full this summer.

At this point, computer models show that the popular reservoir east of Helena should fill to within two feet of what's considered a full basin, according to Tim Felchle, reservoir and river supervisor for the Bureau of Reclamation.

However, that model includes inflows from the typical spring storms, and those haven't happened very often so far this year. This also usually is the time when the snow at lower levels melts into the reservoir -- but there isn't a lower level snowpack this year, and even the higher elevations are bereft of the typical snow coverage.

"I think the inflows should be around 4,000 (cubic feet per second)," Felchle said last week. "But we are just not seeing it this year. So what we are really doing now is trying to manage it. We're releasing enough water for what we consider the absolute minimum to sustain the (downstream) fishery."

Felchle said that releases of about 4,100 cfs are needed below the Canyon Ferry Dam for a healthy fishery downstream on the Missouri River. The minimum flow is 2,800 cfs; as of Friday, the outflow was 2,802 cfs.

Those low flows can harm the fish habitat below Holter Dam.

But Steve Dalbey, fisheries biologist for Fish, Wildlife and Parks, noted that the drought actually is good for the stretch of river between Canyon Ferry Dam and Holter Reservoir, because fewer fish are flushed downstream.

"Hauser and Holter reservoirs actually benefit from drought, because the release retention numbers are extremely low," Dalbey said. "Those are run-of-the-river dams, and because of that on high water years we end up flushing a lot of productivity and fish out."

By Friday afternoon, inflows at Canyon Ferry Reservoir were up to 3,092 cfs, but the pool remained at 73 percent of capacity, at an elevation of 3,780 feet. It's considered full at an elevation of 3,797 feet.

Felchle said that predictions for filling the pool to 3,795 feet were made considering normal spring precipitation.

"But right now we are not getting normal spring precipitation," Felchle said. "If we don't get the rains, we will not fill."

The minimum plan calls for the lake's elevation to climb to at least 3,786 feet. But as Felchle peruses the dozens of statistics the BuRec compiles, he notes that Montana has seen drought conditions for the past five years, and today's flows into Canyon Ferry are lower than they've been in the past five years. They're also at 73 percent of the 30-year average.

"That just goes to show you what kind of drought we've been suffering through," Felchle said.

The conditions are similar to those from last year, when lake levels only rose to 3,780 feet by May.

In years past, the owners of Kim's Marina nervously kept tabs on the water, hopeful that the reservoir would be full enough by Memorial weekend to allow boats to access their docks. But when it seemed as though the water might not come to them in time last year, they brought the docks to the water.

"We got approval from the Army Corps of Engineers, and Greg (Axtman) put extensions on our docks," Maryann Axtman said on Thursday. "We took them out into deeper water and eliminated a big part of our problem.

"We made lemonade out of lemons last year, and we're optimistic about this year."

Felchle notes that other reservoirs also are suffering from the drought. Recent reports showed 25 river basins have less than half of their usual snowpack, and the flows on 18 rivers are expected to be only about half of normal.

"The Sun River drainage (which flows into Gibson Reservoir) has the lowest snowpack on record," he said. "Clark Canyon is another area of major concern. Last year we had an irrigation project there that never got water. That was the first time ever. This year it's looking to be pretty much the same."

Bob Hardin, the irrigation district manager for the Gibson Reservoir water users, said they'll probably lower their initial allotments from 2 acre feet of water per acre to 1½ acre feet of water per acre to try to make the irrigation opportunities last longer.

"In the past few years we've started out that way and eventually were able to raise it, so hopefully we can do that again this year," Hardin said. "These next two months, what we get for precipitation will have a huge impact on what we do this summer.

"But I'm optimistic. Historically, April and May have been our wet months, and people are getting pretty efficient with their irrigation systems. We can stretch that water pretty far."

Reporter Eve Byron can be reached at 447-4076 eve.byron@helenair.com.