Gov. Judy Martz's announcement Wednesday that she won't seek a second term hardly qualifies as a shock.

After all, it would seem the only rational move for anyone saddled for so long with poll numbers so low. But the governor kept everybody guessing until the end.

Known for a competitive streak that took to her the Olympics in speed skating, and convinced that her accomplishments have been obscured by bad press and bad luck, Martz wouldn't have really shocked anybody by deciding to run, either.

But the truth is that, in terms of the upcoming gubernatorial campaign, Martz's presence or absence wasn't going to be a critical factor. True, her presence in the Republican primary would have further complicated things n mainly by testing the loyalty of GOP stalwarts who would have felt torn between that loyalty and the reality of her chances in the fall. It also opens the door to Lt. Gov. Karl Ohs if he decides to become the fourth GOP candidate in the race.

On the Democratic side, sole candidate Brian Schweitzer was quick to say Martz's decision made no difference to him. That's because Schweitzer is basically running against the Republicans in the Legislature n Republicans who quickly and decisively took over the most powerful role during this year's session, often leaving the governor to serve as little more than an interested bystander.

In some ways, the upcoming race for governor is a mirror image of the 2000 contest. That year the Democratic primary ballot was filled with Joe Mazurek, the popular attorney general, Mike Conney, the likeable secretary of state, and Mark O'Keefe, the aggressive and well-heeled state auditor. Martz, anointed by her service with the still-esteemed Gov. Marc Racicot and without serious competition within her party, more or less ignored the squabbling Democrats and breezed to a relatively easy win in the general election.

Martz benefited from a shift toward the GOP that showed up in other races across the state. But it didn't hurt that many saw O'Keefe as trying to buy the election, and that the results of electrical deregulation and other economic troubles had yet to fully manifest themselves.

This time around, it will be Secretary of State Bob Brown and former state Sens. Ken Miller and Thomas Keating (and perhaps Ohs) who will be battling in the Republican primary race, while Schweitzer will be free to concentrate on criticizing the record of Republican leadership in general.

Few if any Montanans doubted Martz's sincerity and work ethic on the job. She has been a gracious governor who, perhaps, learned the art of political compromise too late. But her main trouble was that too many Montanans became concerned early on that even in the relatively small pond of Montana politics, Martz too often had trouble keeping her head above water.