Pundits say Morrison affair may refocus Senate race

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Internet commentators and bloggers are having a heyday speculating how the news about Democratic Senate candidate and Auditor John Morrison's extramarital affair may affect his political future.

Last week, the Lee Newspapers State Bureau reported that Morrison, as state auditor, had to hire an outside attorney to handle a 2003 securities fraud investigation. Morrison did so in part because of his two-month extramarital affair in 1998 with a woman who later married the Kalispell businessman whose companies Morrison's office investigated.

His office reached a settlement with businessman David Tacke that ordered him to offer refunds to investors, although none was returned. Tacke was later indicted by the federal government and convicted last year. He is serving a nine-year prison sentence.

Some Internet commentators have pronounced Morrison toast. Others believe he can recover if he plays it straight with voters and another shoe doesn't drop.

As fascinating as Internet commentaries can be, remember that many are posted anonymously or under pseudonyms so we don't know their identities and political ties.

Who knows what its impact will be? I don't. I think it's too early to say.

The June 6 primary is two months away. Morrison and his chief Democratic rival Jon Tester, president of the Montana Senate, have yet to run any ads or debate.

Morrison, twice elected auditor, was seen as the leading Democrat to challenge Republican Sen. Conrad Burns. Morrison has stockpiled nearly five times as much campaign money as Tester.

Burns is under fire for his ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. National newspapers, citing anonymous sources, have said Burns is under U.S. Justice Department investigation in the Abramoff influence-peddling scandal. Burns says he has never been contacted by that agency, which won't comment.

To get a better perspective, the State Bureau called four longtime, nonpartisan political observers.

Three of the four people interviewed believe that news of Morrison's affair and his handling of the case makes it harder for him to attack Burns' ethics.

Jennifer Duffy, managing editor of the Cook Political Report in Washington, said the news about the affair puts Morrison in the same boat as Burns is with the Abramoff scandal.

"You're out there responding to the same questions over and over again,'' she said. "You've said your piece and there's not much else you can do. That's why I think it's a longer term problem for him because I'm not sure the media will let it drop.''

She believes Republicans will keep silent now because they might prefer to see Burns face Morrison.

"A damaged Morrison is probably preferable to Tester right now,'' Duffy said. "The big winner here is Burns. He either gets a damaged Democratic opponent (Morrison) or one (Tester) who has struggled to get his arms around a statewide campaign.''

Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist and commentator, said the news hurts Morrison. He now ranks the primary as a tossup between Morrison and Tester.

"This will make Democrats think,'' Sabato said. "After all, it could end up being scandal vs. scandal, like (Mad magazine's comic) Spy vs. Spy.''

Sabato called the news "a big blow'' for Morrison's electoral chances, even if he wins the Democratic nomination.

"Burns has got to be pleased,'' Sabato said. "There were not many national analysts who didn't say Burns was cooked. Morrison may have just pulled Burns out of the oven.''

Craig Wilson, a political scientist at Montana State University-Billings, said the news about Morrison "changes the entire dynamics'' of the primary campaign and the general if Morrison prevails. He now handicaps the Democratic primary as a tossup or gives Tester the edge.

The national and state Democratic parties have spent months attacking Burns on the ethics issue, with Morrison and Tester joining the chorus.

"If Morrison gets through the primary, it's going to be tremendously difficult to use ethics against Conrad and get any tread on it,'' Wilson said.

Another political commentator disagrees.

"I don't think there's anything that puts him (Morrison) in a worst position against Burns, at least right at the moment,'' said Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report, a Washington newsletter. "At the moment, I don't see anything that seriously undermines his ability to talk about Abramoff and Burns.''

After reading the press coverage, Rothenberg said he saw no evidence that Morrison showed any favoritism or dropped the case, despite the personal connection.

"I don't think he comes off particularly badly here, but you never want to be associated with controversy,'' Rothenberg said. "I don't understand where he did something that was ethically questionable (in the investigation).''

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