Brown, Davison even

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HELENA-Bob Brown and Pat Davison are nearly deadlocked -- 26 to 25 percent -- in the June 8 Republican primary race for governor, with 27 percent of the GOP primary voters still undecided, a new Lee Newspapers poll this week shows.

In the Democratic primary race for governor, likely Democratic voters give Brian Schweitzer a big lead over John Vincent, 59 to 22 percent, according to the poll, taken May 24-26, by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C. Schweitzer, the Whitefish farmer who lost a close race against Republican U.S. Sen. Conrad Burns in 2000, has been running for 16 months and raised more money than any candidate for governor, while Vincent entered the race three months ago.

The primary election portions of the poll -- 300 likely Republican and 300 likely Democratic voters -- each has a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points.

Looking ahead, Schweitzer would defeat Brown, Davison or Ken Miller by a double-digit percentage margin, if the November election were held today, a poll of 625 registered Montana voters likely to vote in the primary shows.

Schweitzer leads Brown, 45 to 35 percent, with 20 percent undecided. A Lee poll in December 2003 found Schweitzer edging Brown 42 to 39 percent. The general election sample of 625 registered voters likely to vote has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Schweitzer also tops Davison 47 to 31 percent in Lee's May poll, with 22 percent undecided. Schweitzer bests Miller 49 to 29 percent, with 19 percent undecided.

The hottest primary race for governor is on the Republican ticket. Here are the results of the Republican primary poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points:

--Brown and running mate Dave Lewis, 26 percent. --Davison and running mate Dave Mihalic, 25 percent. --Miller and running mate Wayne Buchanan, 13 percent. --Tom Keating and running mate Matt Brainard, 9 percent. --Undecided, 27 percent.

Because Brown's 1 percentage point lead falls within the 6 percentage point margin of error in the Republican sampling, what the poll actually says is that the two candidates are about even with two weeks left when the poll was taken.

Brown, who is secretary of state, and Davison, a Billings business consultant, have been engaged in one of the nastiest Montana primary battles in years. In addition, each campaign, or a supporter, filed complaints with the state's political practices commissioner.

''I would think Davison would be more optimistic looking at the numbers than Brown would be because I think Brown started the race as a frontrunner being a statewide official," said Brad Coker, whose firm has polled for Lee Newspapers since 1990.

The poll was done after Political Practices Commissioner Linda Vaughey ruled May 21 that Mihalic, Davison's running mate, failed to meet the residency requirement to be lieutenant governor, but that she lacked the power to remove him from the ballot.

On Monday, Vaughey took up but hasn't ruled yet on a complaint filed by Davison's campaign against Brown, alleging he has improperly used federally funded television ads on a new voting law, some of which feature him, to promote his candidacy.

Coker said the poll results show that Brown has been hurt in the primary by his refusal to sign a pledge not to raise taxes. Davison, Miller and Keating all signed the pledge.

Brown has said that while he isn't advocating tax increases, it's irresponsible for him to sign a pledge he isn't sure he or any other candidate for governor can keep.

The Lee poll found that signing the no-new-taxes pledge to be a definite asset in the Republican primary. When asked if they were more or less likely to vote for candidates who signed the pledge, 46 percent of GOP voters said they were more likely to vote for those who signed the pledge, while 3 percent were less likely. Forty-nine percent said the pledge had no effect on their voting, and 2 percent were undecided.

''Almost half of the (Republican) primary voters are more likely to vote for someone who signed that pledge," Coker said. ''Brown has left himself open there."

The same question was asked of all voters, which is the general election sample. It found 31 percent were more likely to vote for candidates who signed the no-new-taxes pledge, 15 percent were less likely, while 51 percent said it had no effect and 3 percent weren't sure.

The poll also sought to measure the impact of Schweitzer, a Democrat, selecting Republican Sen. John Bohlinger of Billings to be his running mate. Vincent, who selected a Democrat, Teton County Commissioner Mary Sexton, has been criticizing Schweitzer's choice of a Republican.

Asked how Schweitzer's choice of Bohlinger affected their vote, 69 percent of Democrats said it had no effect, while 17 percent said they were more likely to vote for Schweitzer, 11 percent said they were less likely to vote for him. Four percent were not sure.

Results were similar among the larger, general election sample of voters. The poll found 68 percent said Schweitzer's choice of Bohlinger wouldn't affect their voice, while 16 percent said they'd be more likely to vote for Schweitzer and 12 percent said they would be less likely. Four percent said they were not sure.

When Vincent is paired against the three leading Republicans in general election matchups, Brown leads him 39 to 30 percent, with 31 percent undecided. Vincent and Davison are in a dead heat, 31 to 30 percent, with 39 percent undecided. Vincent tops Miller 34 to 28 percent, with 38 percent undecided.

Keating wasn't included in the general election matchups against Schweitzer and Vincent.

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