HELENA -- Ballot measures to increase the state minimum wage and restrict when public officials can become lobbyists are leading by more than 50 percentage points among Montana voters, a Lee Newspaper poll shows.
Yet a constitutional initiative to limit state spending -- which may or may not be on the Nov. 7 ballot -- is trailing among those surveyed, the poll results said.
The poll also surveyed likely voters last week on two other ballot measures that may end up stricken from the ballot, and both enjoyed leads: Constitutional Initiative 98, which would make it easier to recall judges, and Initiative 154, which would allow property owners to demand payment from the government if they think government action has devalued their property.
The poll, conducted for Lee Newspapers by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., surveyed 625 registered Montana voters by telephone last Tuesday through Thursday. The poll has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points.
The poll briefly described the five ballot measures and asked whether the person polled would approve or reject each measure.
Lee Newspapers decided to include in the poll CI-98, I-154 and the spending-cap measure, Constitutional Initiative 97, even though all three measures technically are off the ballot.
A state district judge ruled Sept. 12 that all three measures be removed from the Nov. 7 ballot because of fraud committed during the signature-gathering process that initially qualified them for the ballot.
However, that ruling is on appeal to the Montana Supreme Court -- which could overrule the judge and place the issues before voters in November.
Here are the poll results for each ballot measure:
n Initiative 151, which would hike the minimum wage from $5.15 to $6.15 and also require annual cost-of-living adjustments for the minimum wage starting next year, had the support of 73 percent of those polled. Only 16 percent said they would reject it and 11 percent were undecided.
The measure had equally strong support among men and women.
n Initiative 153, which would bar state legislators and other public and high-ranking appointed state officials from becoming lobbyists for two years after they leave office, had the support of 70 percent of those surveyed. Only 15 percent opposed it and 15 percent were undecided.
The measure had strong support among men, with 76 percent in favor. Sixty-four percent of women supported it, while 21 percent of women were undecided.
n Forty-three percent of those surveyed said they would reject CI-97, which would insert a spending cap into the state constitution. It would prohibit state spending from increasing more than the rate of inflation and state population growth.
Only 34 percent of those polled said they support CI-97, while 23 percent were undecided. CI-97 has faced a well-funded campaign to defeat it, led by the state's largest employee union, AARP-Montana and some business groups.
Women were somewhat less likely to oppose CI-97, with 37 percent against and 34 percent in favor.
n I-154, the property-rights measure, had the support of 51 percent of those polled, while only 24 were against it. Twenty-five percent said they are undecided.
n CI-98, the judicial recall measure, enjoyed only a slight lead among voters who were surveyed. Forty-five percent said they favored the measure, while 39 percent were against it. Sixteen percent were undecided.
Posted in State-and-regional on Sunday, October 1, 2006 11:00 pm Updated: 12:26 pm.
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