HELENA -- Republican U.S. Rep. Denny Rehberg has racked up a huge lead over his Democratic opponent, Tracy Velazquez, in his bid for a third term in the House, a new Lee Newspapers poll shows.
Rehberg tops Velazquez by a 64 to 25 percent margin among Montana voters in the race for Montana's lone House seat, the poll shows. Ten percent are undecided, with Libertarian Mike Fellows of Missoula receiving 1 percent.
The telephone poll, taken of 625 registered Montana voters who said they intend to vote Nov. 2, has a margin for error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. This margin increases for any subgroups such as a region, gender or age grouping. Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc., the Washington, D.C., firm that has conducted surveys for the Lee Newspapers of Montana since 1990, did the poll.
The September poll results closely mirror those in a similar Lee poll taken in May. In the earlier poll, Rehberg led Velazquez by a 61 to 24 percent margin, with 15 percent undecided.
Unlike Rehberg, Velazquez is little known in Montana and has scant campaign funds to spend on advertising so she can become known.
Nearly half of the Montana voters don't recognize Velazquez's name, the September poll showed. Voters were asked if they recognized the names of the two candidates and whether they had a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of each.
The poll found that 49 percent didn't recognize Velazquez's name. Twelve percent had a positive impression of her, 11 percent had a negative opinion and 28 percent were neutral.
Political veteran Rehberg, on the other hand, drew favorable opinions from 58 percent of the voters and negative views from 20 percent, the poll showed. Seventeen percent were neutral about Rehberg and 5 percent were undecided.
The two candidates have contrasting political experience.
Rehberg, a Billings native who is a rancher and developer, served in the Montana Legislature and as the state's lieutenant governor under Gov. Stan Stephens and Marc Racicot. He ran U.S. Sen. Conrad Burns' 1988 campaign in which Burns unseated Democratic incumbent John Melcher. Rehberg narrowly lost a bid to oust veteran Democratic Sen. Max Baucus in 1996.
In 2000, Rehberg won an open U.S. House seat, by a 52 to 46 percent margin, over Democrat Nancy Keenan, a three-term state school superintendent. He coasted to a 65 to 33 percent victory over Bozeman Democrat Steve Kelly in 2002. Third-party candidates received the remaining votes in both elections.
Velazquez, a Connecticut native who put herself through Harvard, moved to Montana a decade ago. A Democratic activist from Bozeman, she lost a previous bid for the Montana Legislature but has not run for statewide office previously.
Rehberg also holds a dominating lead in fund-raising in the race. He has raked in $450,430 in donations and spent $160,421 to leave a cash balance of $455,581 as of June 30. Some of his money came from the $165,572 he had leftover from his 2002 campaign.
Velazquez reported collecting $52,642 and spending $30,959 to leave her with just $21,346 in the bank as of June 30.
Further breaking down the poll numbers, Rehberg leads across all categories -- gender, region and age.
Male voters support Rehberg over Velazquez by a 67 to 22 percent margin, with 10 percent undecided and 1 percent for Fellows. Rehberg's support drops among women, but he still leads Velazquez by a 61 to 28 percent margin, with 10 percent undecided and 1 percent for Fellows.
By region, Rehberg amassed the biggest margin in the 15-county region east and north of Billings, leading her 76 to 16 percent, with 7 percent undecided.
Velazquez fared best but still trailed Rehberg considerably in the 10-county area that included Bozeman, Butte and Helena. Rehberg topped her there by a 58 to 31 percent margin, with 10 percent undecided and 1 percent for Fellows.
In the 11-county area that includes Billings, Rehberg leads 64 to 25 percent. Rehberg holds a 63 to 23 percent lead in the 12-county area that takes in Great Falls. And in the eight-county region that includes Missoula and Kalispell, Rehberg has a 68 to 22 percent margin.
By age group, Rehberg fared best among those voters from ages 18 to 34, who gave him a 68 to 19 percent advantage, with 12 percent undecided and 1 percent for Fellows.
Velazquez got her best support but still trailed Rehberg among Montana voters aged 49 to 64. Rehberg led among that group 58 to 28 percent, with 12 percent undecided and 2 percent going to Fellows.
Among voters aged 35 to 49, Rehberg has built a 61 to 23 percent lead over Velazquez, with 15 percent undecided and 1 percent going to Fellows. For those Montana voters who are 65 and older, Rehberg enjoys a 67 to 26 percent lead, with 7 percent undecided.
Posted in State-and-regional on Friday, September 24, 2004 11:00 pm Updated: 9:06 am.
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