HELENA -- Republican Gov. Judy Martz is apt to lose if she seeks a second term next year, Montana GOP Chairman Ken Miller said Thursday.

''It's not likely that would be the case ... that she would be re-elected if she did run," said Miller, who plans to be a gubernatorial candidate if Martz decides not to run.

His comment came in response to a column by political analyst Stuart Rothenberg in the Capitol hill newspaper Roll Call that ridiculed a potential re-election bid by Martz.

Rothenberg listed such a campaign among five ''bad political ideas whose times have not yet come."

''The governor would have to be delusional to run for re-election, and state Republicans would have to be crazy to renominate her," he wrote.

Rothenberg cited a recent poll for Lee Newspapers showing Martz trailing likely Democratic nominee Brian Schweitzer by more than a 2-to-1 margin. He noted just 18 percent of those polled said she should run again.

''These are some of the worst poll numbers I have ever seen," he said. ''If Martz won't step aside, the state GOP ought to give her a push. That's the only way they have a prayer of holding the state's top office."

Miller said he doesn't believe the party's role should be to nudge Martz to the sidelines.

''I like the idea of giving her support and letting her work through it, and make the best decision for the state of Montana and the party, rather than pushing her out of the way," he said.

''Governor Martz has to make that decision," Miller added. ''I don't think anyone else can make that for her, including the party. All the party can do is give advice."

Neither Martz nor a spokesman could be reached for comment on Miller's remarks or Rothenberg's column.

Miller said his pessimism about the governor's chances in a race is based mostly on the same poll results referred to by Rothenberg.

Democratic Party Chairman Bob Ream said Rothenberg's observations could apply to any Republican candidate, not just Martz. ''She's taking the brunt of it for Republicans as a whole."

He said GOP policies on education and human services funding, and problems with utility deregulation and low wages in Montana should give all Republicans a rough road in the next election.

''He should ask the question why any Republican would get elected," Ream said of Rothenberg.

AKC suspends collie breeder

GREAT FALLS, Mont. (AP) -- The American Kennel Club is suspending collie breeder Athena Lethcoe-Harman of Alaska and fining her $2,000 in the wake of her animal-cruelty conviction, a spokeswoman for the organization says.

A Justice Court jury convicted Lethcoe-Harman and her husband, Jon Harman, of 180 counts each of misdemeanor animal cruelty last weekend. The couple were moving with the animals -- 170 dogs and 10 cats -- from Alaska to Arizona when they were stopped Oct. 31, crossing into Montana from Canada at the Port of Sweet Grass. U.S. Customs Service inspectors discovered the dehydrated, diseased and emaciated animals in a tractor-trailer dripping wet from condensation.

The Harmans said they were moving the dogs to Arizona.

Lethcoe-Harman's ouster from the AKC means she will no longer be able to register any dogs with the AKC or enter them in AKC shows.

The organization governs almost all dog shows, and its seal of approval is considered a must among breeders.

Even if the AKC took no action, Lethcoe-Harman and her husband would have a hard time succeeding as professional breeders after the notoriety she has received, AKC spokeswoman Daisy Okas said Wednesday.

''To be honest with you, the AKC suspension is one thing," Okas said, ''but with all the media coverage this case has generated, they would have a hard time having a successful business in the world of dogs after this."

Lethcoe-Harman could not immediately be reached for comment.

The AKC froze Lethcoe-Harman's privileges after her arrest in November and last February sent an investigator to ''Camp Collie" in Shelby, Mont., where the dogs were being held, to inspect them firsthand.

The inspector examined 56 collies before phoning the AKC to say he'd seen enough, said Toole County Undersheriff Don Hale. The AKC filed internal charges against Lethcoe-Harman, but she was permitted by the organization's rules to appeal the charges to a three-person trial board before the violations were announced, Okas said.

The trial board had not yet heard her case when the Deer Lodge County jury of six convicted the couple last Saturday, Okas said.

She said the suspension and fine from the AKC would be reversed if Lethcoe-Harman's conviction in Deer Lodge County is overturned, but for now, they ''definitely will go fully into effect. It's automatic."

The Harmans are scheduled to be sentenced Friday morning in Shelby. They'll have two weeks after that to appeal the case.