Poll: Montana for Bush

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HELENA -- Montana voters' support for President Bush's war policy has dropped slightly over the past six months, but the Republican president still holds a large lead in his bid for re-election in the state, a new Lee Newspapers poll shows.

If the election were held today, 53 percent of Montana voters said they would vote for Bush, while 33 percent said they'd cast their vote for presumptive Democratic nominee, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts. While 8 percent reported that they were undecided, independent candidate Ralph Nader garnered support from 6 percent of those polled.

Four years ago, Bush defeated Vice President Al Gore in Montana by a 58 to 33 percent margin, with Nader getting 6 percent and others 2 percent.

A telephone survey this week of 625 registered voters shows that slightly less than half -- 48 percent -- of voters approve of Bush's handling of the war in Iraq, down from 54 percent in December 2003.

This month's poll shows that 41 percent disapprove of Bush's handling of the Iraq war, up from the 36 percent who disapproved in December. Eleven percent of voters said they are undecided on Bush's war policy, up 1 percentage point from the December 2003 poll.

''These numbers have come down," said Brad Coker, president of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, the Washington, D.C., firm that conducted the poll. ''The approval of his handling of the war and the economy are pluralities now, not majorities."

Majority support indicates that more than 50 percent of voters approve of something, while plurality support indicates a lead in the polls without a majority.

Congress approved Bush's call for a war on terror and the invasion of Iraq in March 2003. The Bush Administration cited reports that said now-ousted Iraqi leader Sadaam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction.

Slightly more than half, or 52 percent, of Montanans have a favorable opinion of Bush. Another 34 percent say they regard him unfavorably, while 14 percent reported a neutral opinion. Everyone polled recognized Bush's name.

''Montana's still one of his best states," Coker said regarding Bush's approval ratings.

As for Democratic presidential candidate Kerry, 27 percent of those polled this month regard him favorably while 43 percent recognized him unfavorably. Another 28 percent were neutral on Kerry while 2 percent didn't recognize his name.

Kerry is the presumptive Democratic nominee since he has garnered enough support from congressional delegates to earn the nod.

In eastern Montana, Bush took 65 percent of the vote, Kerry got 25 percent while Nader got 4 percent and 6 percent reported they were undecided.

In the Billings area, Bush took 55 percent of the vote while Kerry upped his take to 33 percent; Nader again got 4 percent while 8 percent were undecided.

Of those polled in the Great Falls region, 47 percent said they would vote for Bush, 40 percent supported Kerry, Nader got 7 percent and 6 percent were undecided.

In the Butte, Bozeman and Helena region, Bush got 47 percent of the vote, Kerry got 39 percent, Nader got 6 percent and 8 percent were undecided.

In the Missoula and Kalispell area, Bush got 57 percent, Kerry got 28 percent, Nader got 7 percent and 8 percent were undecided.

President Bush's handling of the economy garnered support from 47 percent of those polled, a statistic that remains unchanged from the Dec. 2003 poll.

However, more voters disapprove of his handling of the economy now - 42 percent - compared with the 37 percent who disapproved in December. Eleven percent were undecided on his economic policy in the May poll, while 16 percent reported they were undecided in December.

The telephone poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc., of Washington D.C. for Lee Newspapers of Montana from May 24 through May 26. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Participants were spread from across Montana and chosen to represent the actual voter turnout of counties in past elections.

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