HELENA -- Montanans overwhelmingly approve of the job their top three statewide officials are doing, seemingly regardless of the official's political party, a new Lee Newspapers poll shows.
Some 65 percent of Montanans polled gave Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer a positive approval rating.
Democratic U.S. Sen. Max Baucus did even better, with a 68 percent approval rating, which was tied with Republican U.S. Rep. Denny Rehberg, also at 68 percent.
The telephone poll, conducted from Dec. 13 to Dec. 15, surveyed a sample of Montana voters on questions ranging from their views on Montana's officials to the Iraq War. Lee Newspapers paid Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington, D.C., to conduct the poll.
While 65 percent of Montanans said they approve of the job Schweitzer is doing, just 50 percent said they would vote for him today if the Democratic governor squared off against an unnamed Republican challenger.
Twenty-eight percent said they would replace Schweitzer with a Republican, while 22 percent said they were undecided.
Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon, said the 50 percent figure could be misleading. In polls, it's common for an incumbent to receive lower marks when he or she is lined up next to an unnamed candidate, he said.
Any actual challenger is bound to have some political flaw, which would typically drive up the incumbent's numbers, Coker said.
"You put a name in there and you've probably got an issue with some voters,'' he said.
The poll also took a look at a possible match-up in the 2008 U.S. Senate race: Baucus against U.S. Rep. Rehberg. Some 48 percent said they'd vote for Baucus, with 44 percent saying they'd vote for Rehberg. Eight percent said they didn't know.
In 2008, Baucus is up for re-election to a possible sixth consecutive term. He has not officially announced his re-election plans and no one, including Rehberg, has yet said whether they're planning to challenge Baucus that year.
The poll numbers appear to give Baucus a slight lead, but due to the margin of error in the poll, it could be said Baucus and Rehberg are statistically tied.
Schweitzer's approval rating is down somewhat from a high of 69 percent last May, although approval ratings for both Baucus and Rehberg have soared in the last seven months.
Schweitzer's lowest approval rating, according to past Lee Newspapers polls, was 57 percent in May of 2005.
Not surprisingly, party affiliation played a substantial role in approval ratings. Among those polled who identified themselves at Democrats, 88 percent said gave Schweitzer a positive rating, while just 51 percent of those who identified themselves as Republicans did the same. Some 60 percent of people who identified themselves as independent voters said they approved of Schweitzer.
Eighty-eight percent of self-identified Democrats gave Baucus a positive approval rating, compared to 57 percent of self-identified Republicans. Sixty-three percent of those who were Independents gave Baucus a favorable rating.
The same trend held true with Republicans. Eighty-six percent of self-identified Republicans gave Rehberg a positive approval rating, compared with 68 of Independents and just 47 percent of self-identified Democrats.
Gender also seemed to play a role, with women supporting Democrats Schweitzer and Baucus more than men, and men coming out in greater support for Republican Rehberg.
Sixty-nine percent of women gave Schweitzer a positive rating, compared with 61 percent of men. Seventy-two percent of women gave Baucus a positive rating, compared with 64 percent of men.
But 71 percent of men gave Rehberg a positive rating, compared with 65 percent of women.
Coker said that's not unusual, for women tend to have more liberal views than those of men.
Schweitzer's approval rating is far above the highest marks Montanans gave his predecessor, Republican Gov. Judy Martz. She topped out with a 44 percent approval rating in December of 2001 and eventually sunk to a low of just 20 percent in May of 2003.
But Schweitzer has yet to achieve the overwhelming approval Montanans gave Republican Gov. Marc Racicot. In December of 1998, Racicot topped out with an 83 percent approval rating, up from his personal low of 47 percent in May of 1993.
Posted in State-and-regional on Saturday, December 23, 2006 11:00 pm Updated: 12:36 pm.
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