GOP unveils 72-hour blitz

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HELENA -- Republican Sen. Conrad Burns may be facing the political fight of his life, but calm GOP operatives believe they have a secret weapon that will push him over the top on Tuesday.

For the first time, Republicans in Montana are putting into place the national party's vaunted 72-Hour Task Force during the final three days of the campaign, state Executive Director Chuck Denowh said. It may be the party's ace in the hole.

This highly sophisticated targeting, voter identification and get-out-the-vote program, or GOTV, was developed in the wake of the extremely tight 2000 presidential race. Its architects were Karl Rove, President Bush's top political strategist, and Ken Mehlman, now Republican National Committee chairman.

National party officials believe this program, which emphasizes the final three days before an election, can give Republican candidates a two or three percentage point advantage in tight races.

It's a highly intensive, volunteer-driven effort to identify Republican and potential Republican voters through techniques such as micro-targeting used by businesses and introduced into politics.

Although Republican officials won't get specific, micro-targeting involves the purchase of publicly available consumer databases. These might include lists of snowmobile owners or those holding hunting and fishing licenses. Through careful merging of databases, analyzing details and data mining, Republicans believe they can identify potential GOP voters. Official emphasize that none of the micro-targeting consumer data ever leave the RNC.

In Montana, Denowh said, some churches, particularly Baptist and Evangelical ones, have shared their membership lists. The GOP bought copies of all the petitions with the names and addresses of people signing the 2004 ballot issue to ban same-sex marriages. Another source, he said, is people who sign petitions at the GOP booths at gun shows.

All of these lists are analyzed so party officials can come up with the names of prospective Republican voters on top of the already known GOP backers and donors.

Then volunteers at the Republican Party's eight victory centers across the state contact potential GOP voters a number of times by telephone and door-to-door visits with targeted messages. Finally, Republican volunteers repeatedly urge them to vote.

"They're making tens of thousands of calls, and they try to identify who's a Burns supporter and who supports Congressman (Denny) Rehberg,'' said Mike DuHaime, political director of the Republican National Committee. "They start to identify them. There is some level of contact all through the summer and fall. It's designed to really kick in the final 72 hours, as the name of the program suggests.''

This technique is credited with Republicans surprising everyone with a huge turnout in Ohio in 2004. That state proved critical in President Bush's ultimate victory.

Erik Iverson, Burns' campaign chief, is convinced the 72 Hour program will make the difference here in the Senate race.

"Absolutely,'' he said. "Where this race is right now -- a statistical tie -- it's going to come down to a get-out-the-vote operation. I genuinely believe our get out the vote is a better operation. It's far superior to what the Democrats' is.''

Iverson said Republican volunteers around the state are making 20,000 contacts a day -- either telephone calls or door knocks -- to targeted voters.

While waiting for Bush to arrive at the MetraPark Arena in Billings Thursday, many of those attending, who picked up their tickets at GOP headquarters, were handed lists of people to call on their cell phones.

"We know exactly who we're contacting, why they were contacted and what we need to say to each,'' Iverson said.

If a voter previously voiced interest to a volunteer in the War on Terror or the right to bear arms, that's the issue this person will hear about in later calls and door-to-door visits, Iverson said.

State Republican Chairman Karl Ohs said that Republican volunteers had made more than 201,750 phone calls and knocked on 49,500 doors in October. These totals are reported on a daily basis to the RNC so officials can monitor the effort. Montana has ranked No. 1 in meeting and achieving goals among all targeted Senate states for the past 27 weeks, Ohs said.

"Montana literally has one of the best teams of any state in the country,'' said the RNC's DuHaime said in a phone interview. "Montana has just been outstanding. They have a great team and a motivated base.''

Larry Grinde, former state House majority leader from Lewistown, is supervising the Montana effort while Chris Wilcox oversees the data end of the operation.

Several decades ago, when local Republicans launched a GOTV, they simply borrowed a real estate office's phones at night, Rehberg recalled. Democrats used phone banks in the basements of union halls.

"The targeting is so sophisticated, we have to do it in a central location,'' Rehberg said. "The Internet changed everything, with e-mail and Web pages. This is a reflection of the change.''

On a typical day of campaigning, Rehberg said he might shake the hands of 100 people. Yet the volunteers working in the 72 Hour program contact thousands of Montanans daily.

"In this tight race, it can be the difference maker,'' Denowh said, running through a hypothetical example. "If we increase the turnout in our target universe by, say, 5 percent, on a statewide level, that could increase the statewide turnout by 2 percent.

"In this political environment, if you're voting for Conrad Burns, you're voting for Republicans down the ticket.''

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